Northwest Arkansas Area Weather Summary
Last Update: 4:30 p.m. cdt Tuesday, July 14, 2020

We will be continuing to monitor for some isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm late this afternoon into this evening over Northwest Arkansas where warm air advection is providing a focus for lift in an elevated unstable airmass. Not expecting much in terms of thunderstorm activity, but have introduced a slight chance late this afternoon into early this evening to account for the isolated precipitation potential. Otherwise, heat indices around Northwest Arkansas are in the 100 to near 110 range for most areas late this afternoon.

The heat and humidity will continue to be the big story over the next several days as an upper level ridge of high pressure continues to expand over the southern plains. Observed dew points have been consistently higher than model forecast over the past few days most likely thanks to recent heavy rains over much of the area. As a result, dangerous heat and humidity is expected to continue for the next several days. In fact, a Heat Advisory will be issued for Northwest Arkansas for Wednesday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a weak front is expected to dip into Northwest Arkansas Wednesday, maybe to around U.S. highway 412 and will likely stall through Thursday. As a result, our chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will likely be greatest during the morning hours on Wednesday along the initial push of the front into the area and during the afternoon hours Thursday on or near the front. Storms could be strong to briefly severe both days with damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall the main threats. Thunderstorms, if they materialize, would also bring a more than welcome relief from the heat for some. For others, it will continue to be hot and muggy.

The weak front will then lift northward Friday allowing for hot, humid, and mostly dry weather to return for some and persist for everyone else. The upper level ridge will continue to expand this weekend and will dominate the southern half of the U.S.. The center of the ridge will be practically overhead by this weekend. It is not out of the question to have pop up afternoon showers or thunderstorms, especially by early next week, but chances are very limited at this time.

...This Day in Weather History...

In 1954, high temperatures in much of Northwestern Arkansas were above 100 degrees. The hottest reading was 115 degrees at Lead Hill in Boone county.

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