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The cold front has passed through Northwest Arkansas as of early this morning. Most precipitation associated with the front has shifted southeast of our area. Radar shows an area of precipitation north and west of Northwest Arkansas, but have only seen a couple surface reports of very light rain as precipitation is falling into very dry low levels. Today will certainly be cooler than yesterday as temperatures will only be in the 40s. Lows tonight will be in the mid 20s to around 30 with minimum wind chills in the mid teens to around 20. Highs Wednesday are forecast from the mid 40s to around 50.

Another weather system will track to the southeast Wednesday while a subtropical jet streams stretches from the southwestern U.S. across the lower Mississippi valley. As this second weather system starts converging on the area, a brief window for some wintry precipitation will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning over portions of Northwest Arkansas. The atmosphere appears pretty dry however, and if any wintry precipitation develops, it should be short lived with little or no accumulation. Winds will pick up some Wednesday night into Thursday as the air mass begins to surge into the area with the colder air. We will see mostly low to mid 30s for lows Wednesday night. Highs on Thursday will be in the mid 30s to the lower 40s with lows Thursday night in the mid teens to low 20s. Some wind chills in the single digits will be possible Thursday night into Friday morning.

The Canadian air mass will shift east of the area on Friday with upper level high pressure ridging briefly setting up on top of low level warm advection. This will help to warm things up back into the 40s by Friday. West of that upper ridge, a low pressure system is forecast to develop and shift eastward into our area by late in the weekend. Forecast models have come into better agreement today in bringing this low into our region late Sunday into Sunday night with some unsettled weather. There is not a lot of instability showing up this far out, but track of low would be a severe weather signal with some more instability. For now, will raise our rain chances into the likely category for the upcoming weekend with rain chances continuing Sunday night. An active pattern is likely to continue into the early part of next week, but confidence in any details is low at this time.

...This Day in Weather History...

In 1989, a flash flood in Carroll County caused 1 fatality.

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