Area Weather Summary for Northwest Arkansas
Last Updated at 10:30 a.m. cdt Tuesday, October 20, 2020

A warm front moved into portions of Northwest Arkansas during the morning hours. North of the front low level clouds remain in place across the area. Temperatures across Northwest Arkansas at mid-day were around 60 degrees. Meanwhile, An upper level disturbance continued moving across the Plains at mid-day. This disturbance, interacting with the warm front is resulting in the scattered showers and thunderstorms across Northwest Arkansas. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to move northeast across Northwest Arkansas through mid-day, before the majority of the activity moves off into southwest Missouri. A few showers may linger across parts of Northwest Arkansas into this afternoon.

Otherwise, the warm front will continue moving northward this afternoon. Just how far north the front can make it before it stalls this evening is the next question. Current thinking is the warm front will move into southwest Missouri by late this afternoon. Temperatures will range from the mid and upper 60s along the Arkansas-Missouri border, to the lower and mid 70s along and south of Arkansas state highway 16 this afternoon. By late this afternoon and more likely into tonight, another round of showers and a few thunderstorms will develop along and just north of the front across northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri and move to the northeast. It's possible that this activity will force the front to sag slightly back to the south into portions of Benton and Carroll counties tonight.

By Wednesday, the warm frontal boundary will have lifted well to the north of the area, and warm along with humid conditions will then prevail Wednesday and Thursday. A windy day is expected on Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens up ahead of the next low pressure system. Gusty south to southwesterly winds will continue into Thursday night. We will have to monitor for possible wind advisory conditions as we approach Thursday.

The next cold front will then sweep across Northwest Arkansas late Thursday night into Friday, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms and a return to cooler temperatures. We could again see temperature ranges from the 50s in Benton county, to 70s in Newton county during the day Friday. The cooler weather will linger into Saturday with additional precipitation chances possible with some upper level disturbances moving across the area.

Our next weather system will then move southward into the southwestern U.S. late this weekend and then move east toward the area by the middle of next week. This will leave the area in an upper level southwesterly flow pattern through early next week. As moisture and lift move across the area, there could be multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms that occur from Sunday into Sunday night. Forecast uncertainty increases markedly by early next week with forecast models yielding wide ranges in timing and strength of the next front. The consistent pattern evolution offered by various modeling systems does raise confidence in much below normal temperatures arriving for early next week. Precipitation chances also continue to trend upward within this pattern and a welcome widespread precipitation event remains possible.

...This Day in Weather History...

In 2019, severe thunderstorms moved across Northwest Arkansas during the late evening and night-time hours. A long-tracked EF-2 tornado struck in Benton county that caused considerable damage northeast of Siloam Springs and in the Pinnacle Hills area of Rogers.

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